The results of a new study indicate that the projections of climate models that predict a greater increase in global temperature are probably more accurate than those that show a smaller increase.
Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo, U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, analyzed how precisely 16 sophisticated climate models were able to estimate the relative humidity observed in the tropics and in the subtropical belt.
For the work, used observations made by instruments aboard satellites and data analysis conducted by NASA.
The researchers found that climate models that more accurately represent these processes of moisture transport and associated cloud formation and its effect, elements that have a great influence on the global climate, were also the greatest warming predicted due of increasing amounts of greenhouse gases emitted by mankind into the atmosphere.
“There is a striking relationship between the ability to simulate well the relative humidity in key areas and warming shown by models in response to increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide,” says Fasullo. “Since these processes are fundamental to the clouds and the global climate as a whole, our results indicate that it is likely that global warming projections correspond to the higher current.”